What Has Happened Since Publishing Tulia’s Moving the Goalposts Research: A Full Update on the UK Immigration Landscape
Since we published our report in May 2026, the political and policy landscape has shifted significantly. Here is everything that has happened, and what it means for migrant care workers and the people who support them.
By Tulia Group CIC | August 2026
When we published Moving the Goalposts in May 2026, the UK was in the middle of an intense and unresolved debate about immigration reform. Three months on, that debate has deepened, and the events of the summer have made the findings of our research more urgent, not less.
Here is a full account of what has happened, in order, and what it means.
1. The Home Office Responded to Our Report — June 2026
On 1 June 2026, Tulia Group received a formal response from the Home Office's Human Rights, Family and Settlement division , a direct reply to the correspondence we sent following our launch. Click here to read Home Office full response
The letter confirmed several things. The earned settlement consultation, which closed in February 2026 having received over 200,000 responses, was still being analysed. The standard settlement qualifying period would move from five years to ten, with a possible extension to fifteen years for those in lower-skilled roles, including many care workers. And, crucially, the analysis would include consideration of transitional measures for those already on a pathway to settlement.
The Home Office wrote, in their own words: "Without any transitional arrangements, the earned settlement policy will affect people already in the system, who are not already settled when relevant Immigration Rules come into force."
That sentence, the government's own acknowledgement of the retrospective harm our research documented, remains one of the most significant things to emerge since our report launched. The door to transitional protections is not closed. But it has not yet been opened either.
2. The Guardian Reported on Children Being Told to Leave — June 2026
On the same day we received the Home Office letter, The Guardian reported on a deeply troubling development, children of migrant care workers, some as young as five, receiving Home Office letters instructing them to leave the UK.
Britain's immigration system came under intense scrutiny after families of migrant care workers reported receiving Home Office letters instructing their children to leave the UK, prompting accusations that the government was unfairly targeting families who had contributed to the country's overstretched care sector.
One affected care worker told The Guardian: "We are completely shocked by the family receiving these letters. We have been living legally in the UK since we arrived here on Christmas Day in 2022. My visa has been extended by the Home Office until 2031."
The families most affected included dependants of care workers whose permission was reaching expiry and dependants whose main applicant's employer had lost its sponsor licence, as sponsor enforcement increased sharply, with the care sector among the areas most affected.
These are not edge cases. They are the daily reality of a workforce navigating a system that is tightening around them, exactly what our research predicted.
3. The House of Lords Published a Landmark Report — 23 June 2026
On 23 June 2026, the House of Lords Justice and Home Affairs Committee published a 122-page report on settlement, citizenship and integration — the most significant parliamentary scrutiny of the earned settlement proposals to date.
You can read our full summary of the report here.
The Committee's conclusions align closely with what Tulia has been saying since before our report launched. While acknowledging the need for reform, the Committee disagreed with a number of the government's key proposals. Its firm opposition to extended qualifying periods, retrospective application, and rigid income-based criteria introduces meaningful political and legal pressure to moderate the proposals.
On retrospective application specifically, the Committee described it as manifestly unfair and potentially unlawful, directly echoing the views of 99.3% of the workers in our research who said changing the rules on people already in the UK was unfair.
The government is required to respond within two months, with further policy developments and potential legislation through the Immigration and Asylum Bill anticipated later in 2026. As of the time of writing, that response has not yet been published.
4. A New Prime Minister Took Office — 20 July 2026
On 20 July 2026, Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, having won the backing of 322 Labour MPs on the first day of nominations, reflecting what he described as a "shared belief that Britain needs a new approach to politics."
As a former Health Secretary and Mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has long placed public health and social care at the heart of his agenda, and his arrival in Downing Street has significant implications for both the settlement reform debate and the future of adult social care policy.
We have written formally to the new Prime Minister sharing our report and urging him to make migrant care workers part of his new approach to politics, because as our research shows, you cannot fix social care without addressing the conditions of the workforce that delivers it.
Shabana Mahmood continues as Home Secretary in the new administration, and it is her department that will make the final decisions on transitional arrangements, the Immigration and Asylum Bill, and the future of the sponsorship system. We have also written to her directly.
5. The Immigration and Asylum Bill Continues Its Passage — Ongoing
The Immigration and Asylum Bill 2026 continues to make its way through parliament. The earned settlement changes are designed to prevent recent migrants who work in jobs considered lower-skilled, adult social care in particular, from gaining access to the welfare system after five years in the UK.
As of July 2026, earned settlement remains a proposal. The public consultation closed on 12 February 2026 with more than 200,000 responses, but the detailed Immigration Rules have not yet been laid in Parliament, and the final point thresholds, qualifying period lengths, and transitional arrangements may change before implementation.
Given the complexity of these steps, most immigration commentators expect implementation no earlier than late 2026 or 2027. But the direction of travel is clear, and the human cost of that direction is what our report documents.
6. The Casey Commission Launched the Big Conversation on Care — 29 July 2026
On 29 July 2026, Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Baroness Casey of Blackstock launched the Big Conversation on Care — described as the most ambitious public conversation in a generation, handing the public a direct role in shaping the future of adult social care in England.
The Commission's timetable has been accelerated following Prime Minister Burnham's appointment, with Baroness Casey now expected to publish a single final report in summer 2027, bringing together recommendations on both immediate priorities and longer-term reform.
The Big Conversation will run in two phases, the first, from July to November, will ask people about the values and principles they want from a care system and who should be eligible for support. The second will focus on how care should be funded and how reform should be delivered.
This is a significant opportunity. The Casey Commission has been tasked with understanding the current adult social care landscape and making pragmatic recommendations for reform. A picture of that landscape that does not include the experiences of migrant care workers, their working conditions, their immigration status, their sponsorship dependency, is incomplete.
We have written formally to Baroness Casey sharing our research and urging the Commission to treat migrant care workers as central to the Big Conversation on Care, not a footnote to it. We encourage our community to take part in the Big Conversation and make sure these voices are heard.
What This All Means for migrant care workers
Three months after Tulia Group published Moving the Goalposts, here is where things stand:
Earned settlement remains a proposal, not yet law, but the direction is firmly toward a longer, more restrictive route to settlement.
The Home Office has acknowledged in writing that without transitional arrangements, people already here will be affected, but has not yet committed to those protections
The House of Lords has formally challenged retrospective application as manifestly unfair, but the government's response is overdue
A new Prime Minister is in office with a stated commitment to a new approach to politics and to fixing social care, an opening that did not exist three months ago
The Casey Commission is actively seeking public input on the future of adult social care, a direct opportunity to put the experiences of migrant care workers on the record
The policy is still being decided. The evidence is still being gathered. And the window to influence what happens next is still open.
What You Can Do Right Now
If you are a migrant care worker or family member affected by any of these issues, a curtailment notice, a visa question, a sponsorship problem, please reach out. Support is available. Email us at info@tulia.org.uk or visit www.tulia.org.uk
If you want to have your say on the future of social care, take part in the Big Conversation on Care, open to everyone until April 2027.
If you have not yet read Moving the Goalposts, now is the time. Share it widely. Take it into every room where it can make a difference.
