How the 2025 Immigration Rule Changes Could Deepen Crisis in the Care Sector

The government has finally published its Impact Assessment for the Spring 2025 immigration changes – more than four months after the rules were already put in place. The report shows very worrying results.

According to the government’s own figures, the changes to Skilled Worker and Care Worker visas could cost the UK between £2.2 billion and £10.8 billion in lost tax income. This is mainly because fewer migrant workers will be allowed to come and work in the UK.

At the same time, older and disabled people will struggle even more to get the care they need, because the care sector is already overstretched and depends heavily on migrant workers.

The government expects net migration to fall by between 21,000 and 34,000 people in 2025/26, and by 40,000 to 67,000 people by 2029/30. This means a big drop in the workforce at a time when the UK does not have enough local workers to fill care jobs and other essential roles.

Businesses will also feel the pressure. The report warns that companies may face:

• Higher wage costs,

• Higher up-front investment, or

• Reduced productivity.

To cope, the government suggests businesses may need to:

• Freeze recruitment,

• Cut production, or

• Move jobs overseas.

These are serious impacts with very little proven benefit in return.

Meanwhile, thousands of migrant care workers who were exploited by Home Office-approved sponsors have still not received justice or compensation.

Publishing these results months late means the public had no chance to understand or challenge the impact of the changes before they were made. This raises major concerns about transparency and accountability.

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